BART To Livermore Extension Project

Hang around Livermore long enough and you are bound to hear a sentence similar to this, “We have been paying taxes for BART for fifty years! And we still have no BART!” This common utterance is in fact the truth. Residents have been paying increased taxes that fund Bay Area Rapid Transit since 1962 when the original funding for the system was approved. And in the proposal for the original BART construction the extension to Livermore was shown as a future project. Obviously that extension has yet to come to fruition. Measure BB passed on November 4, 2014 allocates $400 million to study and fund the BART extension to Livermore after 50+ years of waiting.

Last Thursday, November 12th, I attended the “Isabel Neighborhood Plan Workshop” put on by the city of Livermore “Full Bart to Livermore” project. At this meeting many leaders of the project spoke about the progress that has been made and the plans for the future including the land use and development project that will accompany the potential BART extension.



Who spoke?

- Marc Roberts, City Manager of Livermore
- Bob Vinn, Project Manager for Bart to Livermore
- Lori Parks, Associate Planning Livermore


What are the main take-aways?

- Currently there is $400 million from measure BB and $150 million more secured by the city of Livermore for the extension project.

- Total cost to complete the extension project is $1.2 billion. 

- The shortfall in financing would likely come from MTC (Metropolitan Transportation Committee) and the federal government.

- Funds from these sources would have strings attached in the form of mandatory ridership and walkability requirements. (MTC’s Transit-Oriented Development Policy [Resolution 3434] establishes a minimum amount of planned and existing housing units close to the station in order for the extension project to be eligible for regional transportation funding. For transit extensions, both BART and MTC require local jurisdictions to prepare a community-supported land use, access, and parking plan for the proposed station area. http://www.cityoflivermore.net/citygov/cd/bart/bart_extension_project.asp)

- Right now there are three possible land uses plans for the Isabel Bart station. Alternative one which includes a walkable “Tech center” and one main neighborhood center. Alternative two which includes a neighborhood walkable/bike able loop and two neighborhood centers. Alternative three which incorporates elements of the other alternatives but has a different street configuration. (See the plans at the bottom of the page)

- A six story parking structure that would provide 3000 parking spaces is currently included in the plan. This amount of parking spaces would be among the highest at any BART station already in existence.

- The finished project would add 4000 housing units including townhomes, condos, and mixed use commercial and residential condos. All within walking distance (.5 miles) of the projected BART station.

- The finished project would provide the commercial space for 8500 new jobs including retail space and office space.

- Currently there is four possible projects under consideration by BART:
1.) Full BART to Isabel.
2.) Diesel BART to Isabel.
3. + 4.) Two plans for increased BART bus connectivity between Livermore and Dublin/Pleasanton. 

Here is a link to the details of the possible plans spelled out:
http://www.bart.gov/about/projects/liv


What where some of the main concerns of Livermore residents in attendance?

- Not enough planned parking.
Many in attendance voiced concerns that all of the 3000 parking spots would be quickly taken up by residents of the central valley and none would be left for Livermore residents.

- Too much housing, too many people.
Some in attendance including some who live close to Isabel in North Livermore did not like the proposed 4000 housing units and the fact that all of it would be what is considered “high density housing.” It seemed that these residents felt that this type of housing was not conducive to Livermore’s current character.


What is the potential project timeline and completion projection?

- The Full Bart to Livermore project should have a finalized plan by the end of 2016.
- BART and MTC should consider the project in 2017.
- Conservative estimates would have the project completed sometime between 2025 and 2027.


Want to get involved in the process?
http://www.cityoflivermore.net/citygov/cd/bart/get_involved.asp

 
Here is the visual representation of the three alternatives of the Isabel Neighborhood Plan:


Alternative 1: Main Street - Isabel Neighborhood Plan in Livermore, CA




Alternative 2: Two Centers - Isabel Neighborhood Plan in Livermore, CA




Alternative 3: Arroyo Plaza - Isabel Neighborhood Plan in Livermore, CA

Tri Valley Cities Outperform Drought Conservation Guidance. Is It Enough? - California Drought

Relatively speaking Tri Valley cities Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon and Livermore have responded exceptionally well to California governor Jerry Brown’s call for mandatory water district conservation, He mandated a 25% reduction, starting June 2015.

The decrease of water usage in Pleasanton (- 48%), Dublin/San Ramon (- 43%) and Livermore (- 49.8%) compare exceptionally well to the average usage decrease for all California cities and districts (- 27.3%).

Water Usage Decrease since 2013

City name	Decrease in %
Pleasanton	- 48%
Dublin/San Ramon	- 43%
Livermore	- 49.8%
Average for all CA cities	- 27.3%

Data info: Water usage decrease from 2013, measured June 2015 (2013 is designated by the state as the “base” usage year)

Good job Tri Valley! This is a good start. Unfortunately it looks like these efforts will need to continue for quite some time to make lasting gains. Even with predictions for high likelihood of an El Nino’ event this winter in California. An above (or even well above) average rainy season would not be enough to erase all of the reservoir, water table and snow pack depletion that has occurred over the past 4 years.

(Source: ClimateCentral.org)

From the brown and dying hills to the dead lawns, there is no question the drought is a full blown disaster. In fact, a record high of Californians polled (69%) say that “regional water supply is a big problem.” This is according to a survey released by the public policy institute of California.

(Source: Ppic.org)

Coincidentally I happened to be camping in the South Eastern high Sierra in the summer of 2011 and again just a month ago, summer 2015. It was amazing to see firsthand the extreme depletion of the California snow pack in the high Sierra. Take a look below at the pictures I took in 2011 and 2015 of the same mountain range. I am reasonably certain that the highest peak in both pictures is Mount Whitney which is 14,505 feet above sea level.

The difference is quite stark.

Please give me some feedback or thoughts on this topic. And as always contact me directly if you, your friends, family or colleagues have any Real Estate related needs!

Max Manatt
max@maxmanatt.com
925 980 3375

What Is The Difference Between A Buyer’s And A Seller’s Market?

If you are around residential Real Estate at all, (and aren’t we all?) you will inevitably hear agents, lenders or other pundits refer to “buyers markets" and “sellers markets.” But what is the difference? And are these the only types of Real Estate markets possible? What about a “regular market” or “balanced market”?
This article is written to clarify what buyer’s and seller’s markets really are. Also to sort out some of the subtleties and vagaries of the terms and the understanding (or misunderstanding) of Real Estate markets in general. I will draw upon my personal experience as an agent and will get some opinions of my colleagues as well.

The most simple and generally understood definition of a “buyers’ market”, is a period of time in which the home buyers have a distinct advantage when entering into contract negotiations with the home sellers. A “seller’s market” is the opposite, the home sellers have some “leverage” or advantage when entering into negotiations with a prospective buyer (or buyers). Generally the advantage or leverage on either side is created by your basic supply and demand economics.
When demand is high (i.e. many qualified buyers in the marketplace) and supply is low (i.e. not enough homes on the market) you will have a classic seller’s market. In residential Real Estate “supply” is often called “inventory.” In the Bay Area inventory has been low relative to demand broadly speaking for the last two years or so (2013 - 2015). This has caused prices to rise very quickly.
The opposite situation occurred between 2007 and 2010 (roughly). In the Bay Area (as with the rest of the country) a great deal of homeowners were forced to sell due to the mortgage and credit crisis. This caused an oversupply of homes for sale and due to the tightening of lending policy there was not many qualified buyers in the marketplace to keep up.

What do these two distinct markets mean for the buyers, sellers, agents, lenders and owners who are operating in these conditions?

In a seller’s market, as we currently have in the Bay Area, values are rising year over year, homes are selling quickly (if priced well relative to condition and location), and often homes in desirable areas may receive multiple offers and ultimately sell for well over listing price. Also sellers are more able to name other conditions of the sale that may be favorable to them. Such as a rent back period, a quick close of the sale (21 days instead of 30 days for instance), or even a shortening (or removal in a particularly hot market) of the buyers contingency periods. Contingency periods act as a buffer of time within which a buyer may back out of a transactions if certain conditions are not satisfied (home is in acc condition verified by inspections for instance). The shortening of contingency periods forces a buyer to act with haste and urgency in completing the closing process. Broadly speaking a seller’s market allows sellers to be very picky and particular and it forces buyers to compete and take on more costs and risks in order to get the home they desire.
In a buyer’s market, as was experienced during the great recession, many homes are coming on to the market and not selling very quickly or at all, home values are decreasing year over year, and home sellers are happy to even get one qualified offer somewhere close to the price that they listed there home at. Sellers may have to offer buyer incentives to purchase their home such as a seller credit of cash to buyer or repairs to the home (major or minor). In this market a qualified buyer will have a great selection of homes to choose from and will likely be able to make offers under listing price and ask for concessions from the seller. Broadly speaking a buyer’s market allows a buyer to be very particular and picky and it forces sellers to compete and take on more costs and risks in order to sell their home.
Of course the leverage and position can be relatively equal between buyers and sellers rather than being heavily slanted to one side. In this case we might say that there is a “normal” or “balanced” market. This would mean that supply was meeting demand. And it would mean that Housing pricing were staying somewhat flat or perhaps moving gently upward year over year. In this type of market neither the buyer nor the seller are able to steamroll the other side for everything they want. Transactions in this type of market will be more equitable. Interestingly this type of market is not very common. Usually the advantage lies on with either the buyer or the seller. For an example let’s look at the median prices in Alameda County over the last 9 years ending in 2014. I used the average of the median prices in April, May and June in each year and calculated the percentage increase or decrease.

Median House Price Comparison in Alameda County,CA 2006 - 2014:

Year	Median Price Average	Increase/Decrease from last year
2006	$ 664,646	+5%
2007	$ 695,972	+ 2%
2008	$ 556,308	- 21%
2009	$ 420,441	-24%
2010	$ 501,554	+ 19%
2011	$ 467,856	- 7%
2012	$ 478,603	+ 2%
2013	$ 638,837	+ 33%
2014	$ 737,240	+ 15%

As you can see in 5 of the last 9 years the price change has been over 10% in one direction. This shows that Alameda County housing has been quite volatile over the short term and has consistently had a market that strongly favored either buyers or sellers, and not both.

Here are some opinions of other local Tri Valley Real Estate professionals:

“When supply goes up and demand goes down there is a buyer’s market. When supply goes down and demand goes up there is a seller’s market. There isn’t much room in between.”
Kelly Franco, Realtor
“The difference between the buyer's and seller's market is that during the seller's market, the sellers can literally ask for anything they want in terms of price and terms and they often get them. Sellers’ market happens when there are high demands from buyers with a shortage in home inventory. One of the major contributing factors to a high demand from buyers is the low interest rate when getting a loan. During this market, I have often seen the buyers willing to pay for the difference in the appraisal value, the sellers' fees, and all repairs, especially when sellers receive multiple offers for their home. During the seller’s market, if the home is priced correctly and competitively, most homes will go into a pending contract within two weeks of the home being placed onto the market.
During the buyer's market, sellers have to be very diligence in pricing their homes and then they would have to consider taking a lesser price and better terms for the buyers. Sellers will often offer extra incentives to sell their homes such as offering closing costs to the buyers. During this market, homes will stay on the market for a longer period of time. In an extreme down market, I have seen sellers offer other incentives as well, including offering a two weeks’ vacation and other incentives in addition to already paying for the buyer’s closing costs. Sellers will often pay for all of the repairs too during this market.”
Mony Nop, Realtor
If you are planning on buying a home or selling your current home in the near future, it is crucial that you are aware of the current market conditions in your area (town, neighborhood, and even street). Current market data should inform sellers on what price to list their home and how quickly they can expect to sell. Conversely up to date market data should inform buyers what they should offer on a given home, how quickly they should offer after list date and how many other offers they may be competing against.
If you are curious about any of these topics or if you or someone you know is in need of any Real Estate related consultation feel free to contact me directly.
Max Manatt
Keller Williams Tri Valley
925 980 3375
max@maxmanatt.com

Mimi's Recipes "Mimi Fries"

Mimi Fries

Serves: 2 People

INGREDIENTS:
6 small potatoes
2 tablespoons Grape Seed Oil
Dash of Salt and Pepper


INSTRUCTIONS:
1.) Preheat the oven to 400 degrees F (205 degrees C)
2.) Wash potatoes thoroughly
3.) Cut of the bad parts of the potatoes.
(You can peel the whole potato but I don’t recommend it. The potato skin holds a lot of the nutrients including Vitamin C, potassium, B6, fiber, and so on)
4.) Cut the potatoes into sticks.
5.) Transfer the potatoes into a bowl.
6.) Add 2 tbsp of oil to the bowl and coat all the potatoes with the oil.
7.) Put a non-waxed baking sheet on a oven pan.
8.) Place the potato sticks on the pan. (Best if they are not on top of each other)
9.) Bake for 30 – 40 minutes. (You can bake it longer if you want them crispier)
10.) Take them out of the oven and sprinkle with salt and pepper as much as desired. (I personally love iodized Sea Salt or pink Himalayan Salt, which is referred to as the purest salt on planet earth)


VARIATIONS:
Soft Mimi Fries: Set the heat to about 350 degrees F and bake them little longer, if you like your fries soft.
Crispy Mimi Fries: Set the oven heat to 420 degrees F and don’t bake them longer then 35 minutes, if you like your fries nice and crispy.

Also take in consideration what oven pan you are using. If you use a metal pan you want to watch the fries because they might burn quicker. If you use a ceramic, porcelain or glass pan, the fires won’t burn as easy. (I burned fries before, but Max still ate them lol)


DIFFERENT FLAVOR OPTIONS:
Garlic Mimi Fries: Before you start, prepare your own garlic oil: Mince 4 gloves of garlic. Heat the garlic and oil in a small saucepan over medium heat for about 2 minutes. Strain the garlic from the oil with a small mesh strainer. Set both garlic and oil aside. This is the oil you will use for coating the potatoes (as described above in step 6). Once you baked the potatoes with your self made garlic oil, take them out of the oven and toss them with your garlic. Add salt and pepper for taste.
Cheese Mimi Fries: Once you take the hot fries out of the oven, sprinkle shredded Parmesan cheese on top of them.


SERVE SUGGESTIONS:
Serve the Mimi fries as a side dish, a main dish, a snack or as a treat.


MIMI'S SPECIAL TIP:
We usually eat Mimi fries as a treat! Most of the time we have a full meal with bunch of vegetables and fill our bellies with lots of valuable nutrients while the potatoes are still in the oven. Once we are done with our delicious vegetable meal, we enjoy the Mimi fries with Himalayan Salt and black pepper fresh out of the oven and still hot.

Too Cool For School

How single family home resale value is impacted by school zoning

                It is commonly held knowledge in the Real Estate community that single family home values are closely tied to the quality (or perceived quality) of the nearby schools. Today I would like to dig a bit deeper into the numbers to determine how strong the correlation really is between home values and school ratings. Then we will take a look at what determines a schools rating and why your house’s resale value might be partially determined by the Mountain Dew and Minecraft addled brain of some tween!

“Using a huge database of about 407,000 home sales and nearly 11,000 elementary school districts in 57 metropolitan markets… on average, buyers pay $50 more per square foot for homes in top-rated school districts compared with homes served by average-rated schools.”(Washingtonpost.com written By Kenneth R. Harney October 4, 2013, study was conducted by Redfin.com)

                This quote is from a nationally published article written in October 4, 2013. Now what must be taken into account about this study, and most other similar studies, is that they do not control for other factors besides schools. But with that being said for the sake of simplicity we can take these numbers at face value.

Impact of School Ratings on Housing Market in Livermore, California. 

April - October 2014.

	South Livermore	North Livermore
Number of Houses Sold	21 Houses	20 Houses
Square Footage	1,500 - 1,700 sqft	1,500 - 1,700 sqft
Average Sale Price	$ 646,738	$ 580,975
Median Sale Price	$ 650,000	$ 600,000
Average Price per Square Foot	$ 403.52	$ 369.01
Median Price per Square Foot	$ 405.15	$ 379.11
Average School API Rank	8.8	6.7

Pictured in the table above ,I have done my own mini study in Livermore CA for the last six months. Twenty-one sold homes in South Livermore (south of the railroad tracks and west of Arroyo Road) that were between 1500 and 1700 square feet. For these homes the average sale price was $ 646,738 (median $ 650,000) and the average price per square foot was $ 403.52 (median $ 405.15.) For twenty sold homes of the same square footage (1500-1700), sold in the same time period but in North Livermore (north of the train tracks or East Avenue, east of Murrieta Blvd, west of South Vasco Road) the average sales price was $ 580,975 (median $ 600,000) and the average price per square foot was $ 369.01 (median $ 379.11.) I chose these two areas because the portion of South Livermore I chose is zoned for schools with and average rank of 8.8 (Emma Smith Elementary, Mendenhall Middle School, Joe Mitchell Elementary, Sunset Elementary and Granada High School.) Conversely the area of North Livermore that I sampled has an average school score of 6.7 (Junction K-8, Marilyn Avenue Elementary, Livermore High School, East Avenue Middle School, Jackson Avenue Elementary, Arroyo Seco Elementary School.) All Scores averaged from 2012 API state wide ranks provided in School accountability report cards. From this small sample (20 homes in North Livermore 21 in South Livermore) it would seem that in Livermore home values are affected heavily by school scores. Once again I would like to stress the fact that my study, like the one conducted by RedFin.com, does not take into account other factors such as: condition of the home, proximity to amenities, busyness of the street, and age of the structure. But I would add as an anecdote that in my personal experience as a Real Estate professional I have observed that school test score rankings have a high impact on the desirability and pricing of single family homes. We can safely say that there is a weighty correlation between school test score ranks and single family home prices, although no causation has been proven.

                So far it would seem to be the case that school rankings are indeed a big indicator in the resale value for homes. Now I will take a look into how schools are given their scores. Generally the scores that you will see when looking at schools in California is what is called an Academic Performance Index rank (API.) This is the 1-10 ranking that you see on Greatschools.com or next to a home’s schools on Zillow.com or Trulia.com. (Although Great schools claims to take into account the classroom size, and perhaps this is true because I did find some discrepancy between the score Greatschool.com provided and the actual API score.) Now the actual API score is actually between 200 and 1000 (it gets peeled down to 1-10 for simplicity and readability) and it is based on a smattering of standardized test given to students in the springtime before the end of the school year. That’s it, a schools rank is simply dependent on how its students perform on some multiple choice tests, covering English-Language arts, Mathematics, Science and History-Social Science. That means that your home’s resale value is in part determined by an eleven year old filling in a Scantron between Minecraft sessions. Ok perhaps I am taking it to the extreme, they probably don’t let eleven year olds play Minecraft at school between standardized tests, but it does seem crazy that schools are ranked in such a way when there are potentially many other factors that determine the quality of experience of the students at a given school.

                There is a deeper way to analyze an individual school. In the “School Accountability Report Card” which is a thick report, issued for each individual school each year, (10-20 pages), there are sections covering many aspects such as: the aforementioned standardized test scores, ethnic makeup of the schools, average classroom size, qualifications of the teachers, A breakdown of how the students scored on individual subjects, percentage of students meeting physical fitness state standards, the quality of the study materials, even the condition of the schools physical structures and many more measurable factors. But a composite report like this would not fit next to the school on the Zillow.com page. It is certainly not bite sized or easily consumed. So the whole report gets whittled down to one number, presumably for ease of use.

                The API score however will no longer be in use in its present form in California past 2014. There will be a two year Hiatus courtesy of the Governor of California Jerry Brown and the state legislature in Sacramento (Senate Bill 1458, passed in 2012). After the break the API rankings will return but it will not be calculated in the same way. What exact formulation it will take into account remains to be seen. It is supposed to combine test scores (60%) with other as yet undetermined factors (40 %.)  I personally hope that there is still Minecraft and Mountain Dew involved. (Let me know if you would like to see the specific sales I used in my study. Or if you have any specific questions concerning schools and Real Estate.)

Mimi's Recipes "Balsamic Vinaigrette"

       Today will be the premiere of my better half's project "Mimi's Recipes." As a merciful respite from the ardous articles written by yours truly I will frequently post some Healthy recipes that my wife, Mimi,  has created. Enjoy!

Do you like to eat your salad with dressing? of course you do! everybody does. Did you know many of the popular dressings that are widely available will turn your light green salad into a heavy calorie laden fair? Now there is nothing wrong with that however if you are interested in something homie'er and healthier than we have a treat for you today:

Mimi’s Balsamic Vinaigrette Dressing

Serves: 2-3 People

Ingredients:

¼ cup rice vinegar

¼ cup balsamic vinegar

¼ cup water

2 tablespoons olive oil

¼ cup raisins (plain, no sugar added)

2 cloves of garlic

2 tablespoons dried basil (or other seasoning, see note below*)

1 teaspoon dried onion

Instructions:

Put all ingredients in a blender and mix it between 25 – 40 seconds. Stop blending when the dressing has reached your desired consistency. Instead of a blender you can also use a hand blender.

Variations:

Spicier Option:

Add additional 1-4 cloves of garlic

Different Flavor Option:

*If you don’t like dried basil and/or dried onion, feel free to substitute these ingredients with any kind of seasonings for example oregano, thyme, rosemary, garlic, and so on.

If you are a salty person, feel free to add salt to it.

Serve Suggestions:

This dressing tastes great with any type of plain green leaf salad. I personally love it with Arugula but spinach, romaine lettuce and other green leaf salads go very well with it.

Mimi’s Special Tip:

Make more of this dressing at once and store it in a container in the fridge. Since it stays good for over 2 weeks you only need to prepare it once in a while and can enjoy this delicious dressing for multiple days! 

Brown Grass, Good Neighbor?

One of the most controversial issues around the Livermore valley this summer is the prevalence of brown front lawns. Traditionally a dying lawn has been a sign that the home owner doesn't have any “pride of ownership” and furthermore a brown lawn would be of huge concern to surrounding neighbors because of the possible negative sentiment caused to the neighborhood as a whole. In fact popular belief in the past has been, if there is enough dead lawns in a neighborhood then the resale value of all the homes in that area could be decreased. But with one of the worst droughts in California’s history showing no signs of slowing up, that ideology is meeting resistance among some local home owners and Real Estate professionals.


This summer it seems that popular opinion in Livermore is splitting into two camps. 1) The traditional pride of ownership group and 2) the new water conservation group. The new thinking is that a brown lawn signals that the homeowner is willing to sacrifice “pride of ownership” for the good of the whole community. In fact, signs have been popping up in front yards that read “Brown is the new Green, browning the lawn to green the farm.” This advances the idea that it is the responsibility of the metropolitan areas to save water so that the agricultural sector out in the central valley will have more water for their crops.


This growing shift in social norms has many implications for home owners and Real Estate Professionals. New Home owners or seasoned ones who for years or maybe even decades have kept their lawns green now are faced with the dilemma of whether to water, or let wither. Either option will lead to strong opinions from the neighbors:


Jason and Kristen, home owners from Livermore, do not appreciate it when they see that a neighbor excessively waters their golf course green lawn. “When are they going to get a fine?” Asks Kristen when she sees such a neighbor.


On the other hand Joey who is a home owner in South Livermore has the more traditional viewpoint. “(Dang), look at that dead brown lawn!” is his reaction when he sees a neighbor’s dead grass for the first time.


Now I would be remiss if not to point out that there is a middle ground of understanding to be found between the two views. Many home owners in Livermore have elected to forego grass all together. Many have elected to water there grass very little. Jose in Springtown only waters his front lawn for six minutes three times a week. Many people who I talked to for this story pointed out that there is a big difference between having a browning well-kept lawn and a dead lawn that has not been mowed and edged in weeks and is inundated with weeds. So perhaps harmony can be attained between the two ideals of Aesthetic and Efficient (Environmental) acceptability.


These days Real Estate professionals who represent Buyers and sellers in Livermore residential transactions must now walk a fine line when it comes to the subject of lawns. As mentioned earlier brown lawns generally mean lower home values, so traditionally when agents list homes they make sure that the front lawn is green and healthy. This has always one of the most sure fire ways to improve “curb appeal” (initial visual judgment of the home from the curb.) Today with the drought in full force and water restrictions in force, greening the lawn is not such a clear cut issue for professionals. I asked a few local agents what their initial reaction is when they see a brown lawn:


“Does not provide a favorable impression. Curb appeal is the very first impression for a potential buyer and a dead lawn suggest that there may be other differed maintenance items in the property.” -Alex Watson, Realtor


“If it is in Livermore I'd think the occupants are following the water saving guidelines. I would prefer a green lawn but (I) understand.”-Debbie Burness, Realtor


“Initially (dead lawns) reminded me of the foreclosure market. Neglected neighborhoods. However once I started seeing more of the lawn signs about conserving water and learned more about the drought it was a lot more understandable.” Anna Pacheco, Realtor


So moving forward, how are you going to approach the watering and care of your front lawn? Email (max@maxmanatt.com) or post an opinion to join the conversation.